Politics - Key’s election to lose

John Key and National will win the election. I predict National will end up with 47 percent of the party vote. That probably won’t be enough to govern alone. John Key will need to rely on a few other parties to govern. He’ll get into government by doing business with United Future’s Peter Dunne, the Maori Party, and the remnants of the ACT Party. As coalition partners they will not hold much power or influence – in many ways they are a ragtag bunch on their way out – but Key will do business with them anyway. He has no other option.

Labour will poll 29 – or perhaps close to 30 – percent. The party won’t collapse like some are predicting, but 29 or 30 percent is still a poor showing. Goff will actually campaign well. He will perform strongly in the debates. He’s experienced. He doesn’t rock anyone’s socks off and appears largely robotic, to the extent that voters seem to have walked away, but core Labour voters will turn out and support him and his party.

Turnout will be a problem for Labour and they may suffer from their voters staying at home. I predict turnout will be low – at about 75 percent.

The Greens will poll close to 10 percent and they may even go higher. This will be the party’s best ever effort. It will end up with 12 MPs, possibly more, depending on how the votes fall. The Greens will not, however, formally support a National government. They will not vote for National to stay in power – what’s called confidence and supply – and will not vote for their budgets.

The Greens will be offered a memorandum of understanding around policy. The Greens will accept that and do business with Key. This means that some crucial Green policies will become law. Key wants to look like he is ‘reaching out’.

Key won’t want to ignore the third largest party in Parliament. Kiwi mums have started voting for the Greens, and Key ignores that at his peril. But National and the Greens are still poles apart. The Greens want to invest in state assets; National wants to sell them. National wants to weaken the Emissions Trading Scheme; the Greens want to make it tougher on farmers. The Greens would bring our soldiers home from Afghanistan; Key has kept them there longer.

National are largely full of crusty old conservatives. The Greens are tiki-wearing, organic-food-eating, anti-mining, urban liberals. National is chalk to the Greens’ cheese, but they will find ways to co-exist.

New Zealand First is gone. They may get 3.5 percent, which won’t get them back to Parliament. Winston will hang up his hat – reluctantly.

ACT will make it back with two MPs but they don’t deserve it. They have been a train wreck. Nonetheless, John Banks will win Epsom. John Key doesn’t want to risk cutting ACT loose by telling voters to back his candidate in Epsom, so will continue with his policy of getting ACT across the line by telling his voters to split their vote. National knows ACT is stuffed, but Key must continue to keep them alive in case he’s an MP or two short on election night.

The Maori Party currently have four MPs, and I predict they will come back with three. Wellington and South Island MP Rahui Katene may find herself out of a job. Hone Harawira will win his seat up north, but he’ll fail to bring anyone else with him from the Mana Party.

Peter Dunne will probably win his Ohariu seat but his time is fast running out. Key’s endorsement gets him across the line this time.

Key needs a trouble-free campaign. He has shown signs he can trip up – he can get caught out, and he is far from perfect. But he is on course to govern again.

Phil Goff is now just weeks away from stepping down as Leader of the Labour Party. He will be probably be replaced by Finance Spokesman David Cunliffe, who may not last long either – he is not overly popular within his own party.

And then there’s the Rena on the reef off Tauranga. Oil spills, environmental disasters – now that surely has to help the Greens’ campaign. They are set for their best ever result.

Duncan Garner wrote this in late October.